受圣诞季促销影响，中国服装出口增速加快

在外贸国际市场需求增加和为圣诞季促销备货等因素的拉动下，中国外贸服装出口增速加快。据海关统计，1-10月，中国外贸服装(含衣着附件，下同)出口1433.5亿美元，同比增长25.7%，比2019年同期增长14.4%。其中10月当月出口169.4亿美元，同比增长25%，比2019年10月增长33.4%。

前10个月，中国服装对主要市场的出口均呈现较快增长。其中，对美国、欧盟、日本三大主要市场出口分别增长41.4%、21.2%和8.8%，对东盟、中东、非洲、拉丁美洲出口分别增长23.9%、28.2%、34.4%和48%，对韩国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯和加拿大出口分别增长23.8%、31.4%、3.2%和13.7%。

行业企业在延续生产恢复态势的同时，运行质效持续恢复。据国家统计局统计，10月份，中国服装行业规模以上企业工业增加值同比增长8.2%，比9月高3个百分点;1-10月，服装行业规模以上企业工业增加值同比增长9.1%，增速同比提高19.1个百分点，两年平均下降0.9%(以2019年相应同期数为基数，采用几何平均的方法计算)，降幅比1-9月收窄0.3个百分点;规模以上企业完成服装产量191.25亿件，同比增长8.88%，增速同比提高17.26个百分点，两年平均下降0.1%，降幅比1-9月收窄1个百分点。且行业企业亏损有所收窄，营业收入利润率小幅提升，固定资产投资完成额增速同比提高，企业运行质效持续恢复。

不稳定不确定因素交织

中国服装协会认为，总体来看，今年四季度到2022年，中国服装行业面对的发展形势依然错综复杂，不稳定不确定因素交织存在，行业继续保持平稳向好发展的基础仍需巩固。

从外部需求看，全球疫情持续蔓延，国际市场复苏前景仍面临高度不确定性。今年三季度以来，全球经济复苏步伐整体放缓，新变异毒株加大了全球经济复苏前景的不确定性。国际市场服装消费需求恢复进程随之起伏波动，回升力度仍显疲弱。在主要消费市场，受商品价格上涨、供应链中断等因素影响，美国市场消费需求走弱，11月份密歇根大学消费者信心指数从9月份的72.8降至67.4，服装零售虽保持大幅增长，但增速明显放缓;1-10月美国服装和配件零售额同比增长50.39%，增速比1-6月回落17.04个百分点。受疫情反弹困扰，欧盟服装零售表现低迷，9月份欧盟纺织服装鞋类零售同比下降2.3%，环比下降0.3%。1-9月日本纺织服装及附件零售额同比增长0.74%，增速比1-6月回落1.37个百分点。

复杂形势驱动全球服装产业链、供应链分布格局加快调整重构。前期受东南亚疫情及全球供应链瓶颈影响，海外采购商、零售商正在将生产制造从东南亚转至本国或其他欧洲国家，加速推进“中国+多个国家”的全球采购策略。随着疫苗推广下东南亚各国疫情趋稳，越南、孟加拉国等的生产能力快速恢复，服装出口转为正增长。10月单月，越南纺织品成衣出口在连续两个月大幅下降后同比小幅增长4.55%，前10个月出口同比增长5.51%。马来西亚和土耳其服装出口在10月单月和前10个月同比分别增长72.71%和23.55%;孟加拉国成衣前9个月出口同比增长18.33%。

外贸服装主要进口国的来源地份额变化也印证了这一点。1-10月，东盟在美国服装进口市场同比减少3个百分点的份额，主要由印度、洪都拉斯和巴基斯坦等国填补;越南、印尼、缅甸在日本服装进口市场合计减少的4.18个百分点份额，除中国增加1.89个百分点的份额外，孟加拉国、马来西亚的份额分别增加了0.49和1.74个百分点。

从国内情况看，综合成本上涨加剧、用工结构性短缺、人民币汇率波动等持续加大行业企业尤其是中小企业的经营压力。

简报指出，一方面，能源供应紧张、价格上涨推高中间产品价格，处于产业链下游的服装企业的成本上涨压力进一步加大;另一方面，国际货运价格倍数增长，人民币汇率和美元指数同时走强，以及港口拥堵、工人短缺造成的全球供应链中断仍在持续，均给企业正常交货回款带来较大风险，严重压缩出口企业利润空间。据国家统计局数据，1-10月，服装行业规模以上企业成本费用的营业收入占比高达94.68%，比2019年同期高0.49百分点。

Driven by the increasing demand in the international market and stocking up for the Christmas season promotion, China's garment export has accelerated. According to customs statistics, From January to October, China exported 143.35 billion US dollars of clothing (including clothing accessories, the same below), up 25.7% year on year and 14.4% compared with the same period in 2019. Of these, October exports amounted to 16.94 billion US dollars, up 25 percent year on year and 33.4 percent higher than October 2019.

In the first 10 months, China's garment exports to major markets showed rapid growth. Exports to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased by 41.4%, 21.2% and 8.8%, respectively. Exports to ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America increased by 23.9%, 28.2%, 34.4% and 48%, respectively. Exports to South Korea, Australia, Russia and Canada rose 23.8%, 31.4%, 3.2% and 13.7%, respectively.

Industrial enterprises in the continuation of production recovery, while the operation of quality and efficiency continued to recover. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in China's garment industry increased by 8.2% year on year, 3 percentage points higher than September. From January to October, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in the garment industry increased by 9.1% year on year, with the growth rate increasing by 19.1 percentage points year on year, and the two-year average decreased by 0.9%(based on the corresponding corresponding period in 2019 and calculated using the geometric average method), which was 0.3 percentage points narrower than that from January to September. The garment output of enterprises above scale reached 19.125 billion pieces, up 8.88% year on year, with the growth rate up 17.26 percentage points year on year, and the two-year average decrease of 0.1%, which was 1 percentage point narrower than that from January to September. Moreover, the losses of industrial enterprises narrowed, the profit margin of operating income increased slightly, the growth rate of completed fixed asset investment increased year on year, and the quality and efficiency of enterprise operation continued to recover.

Unstable and uncertain factors interweave

China National Garment Association believes that, on the whole, from the fourth quarter of this year to 2022, The development situation of China's garment industry is still complicated, with unstable and uncertain factors interwoven, and the foundation for the steady and sound development of the industry still needs to be consolidated.

In terms of external demand, the global epidemic continues to spread, and the prospects for recovery in the international market remain highly uncertain. Since the third quarter of this year, the overall pace of global economic recovery has slowed down, and the new mutant strain has increased the uncertainty of the prospects of global economic recovery. The recovery process of garment consumption demand in the international market fluctuates and the strength of recovery is still weak. In major consumer markets, the consumer demand in the US market has weakened due to factors such as rising commodity prices and supply chain disruption. The Consumer confidence index of university of Michigan in November dropped to 67.4 from 72.8 in September. Although the clothing retail industry maintained a substantial growth, the growth rate slowed down significantly. Us retail sales of clothing and accessories grew 50.39 percent year on year in the january-October period, down 17.04 percentage points from january-June. Plagued by the rebound of the epidemic, clothing retail sales in the EU have been sluggish. In September, the retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear in the EU decreased by 2.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. In The january-September period, retail sales of textiles, clothing and accessories rose 0.74% year on year, down 1.37 percentage points from january-June.

The complex situation has accelerated the adjustment and reconstruction of the distribution pattern of the global apparel industry chain and supply chain. Affected by the epidemic in Southeast Asia and the bottleneck of the global supply chain, overseas buyers and retailers are shifting their manufacturing from Southeast Asia to their own countries or other European countries, accelerating the global procurement strategy of "China + multiple countries". With the promotion of vaccines, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries has stabilized, the production capacity of Vietnam and Bangladesh has recovered rapidly, and the garment export has turned into positive growth. In October alone, Vietnam's textile and ready-to-wear exports edged up 4.55% yoy after falling sharply for two consecutive months. In the first 10 months, exports grew 5.51% yoy. Malaysia's and Turkey's garment exports increased by 72.71% and 23.55% year-on-year in October and the first 10 months respectively. Bangladesh's ready-to-wear exports rose 18.33 per cent in the first nine months from a year earlier.

This is also confirmed by the change in the origin share of the main importing countries of foreign trade clothing. From January to October, ASEAN's share in the US apparel import market decreased by 3 percentage points year-on-year, mainly made up by countries such as India, Honduras and Pakistan. Vietnam, Indonesia and Myanmar lost 4.18 percentage points of their share in Japan's garment import market. In addition to China's increase of 1.89 percentage points, Bangladesh's and Malaysia's share increased by 0.49 and 1.74 percentage points respectively.

Domestically, rising overall costs, structural labor shortages and fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate continue to increase the operating pressure on industrial enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

The briefing notes that, on the one hand, the tight energy supply and rising prices push up the prices of intermediate products, and the garment enterprises in the lower reaches of the industrial chain face further increasing cost upward pressure. On the other hand, the multiple growth of international freight prices, the simultaneous strengthening of the RMB exchange rate and the DOLLAR index, and the ongoing disruption of the global supply chain caused by port congestion and worker shortage all pose great risks to the normal delivery and payment collection of enterprises, and seriously compress the profit margin of export enterprises. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, the operating income of enterprises above designated size in the garment industry accounted for 94.68% of the total, 0.49 percentage points higher than the same period in 2019.