WTO：2021全球贸易量近12个月首次下降

世界贸易组织(WTO)12月发布的报告显示，全球贸易量在2021年第三季度下降0.8%，此前连续12个月的强劲增长势头被终结。不过得益于进出口商品价格大幅上涨，全球贸易金额在第三季度继续攀升。报告指出，三季度全球贸易量萎缩的原因是新冠疫情导致全球供应链中断及产能不足。综合2021年前三个季度的数据，全球总贸易量增长11.9%。

　　从贸易类别来看，一些行业在第三季度出现强劲增长，包括钢铁(同比增长73%)、电子元件(26%)、制药(22%)和其他化学品(31%)。一些行业则出现停滞或下滑，包括汽车产品(0%)、电信设备(-5%)、服装(-5%)和纺织品(-7%)。报告称，汽车产品和电信设备的疲软反映出最近半导体短缺态势。包括医用口罩在内的许多纺织品此前在疫情严重时贸易量激增，它们在第三季度贸易量下降是由于之前的高基线。从国家来看，最新的月度数据显示中国和南非等国出口收入明显增加，美国、墨西哥等国出口收入略有增加。

　　报告显示，今年第三季度北美和欧洲进口量弱于预期，出口量分别较上一季度下降1.9%和1%。此外，全球94个港口的集装箱吞吐量仍接近历史最高点，但近几个月已趋于稳定。到今年10月为止，2021年的集装箱吞吐量增长约9%，与同期商品贸易量增长相当。WTO认为2021年第四季度全球贸易量如能增长，全年贸易量可以达到先前10.8%的增长预测。

The volume of global trade fell 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2021 after a 12-month streak of strong growth ended, according to a World Trade Organization (WTO) report released in December. But global trade continued to climb in the third quarter, helped by a sharp rise in the prices of imports and exports. The report attributed the contraction in global trade volume in the third quarter to disruptions in global supply chains and insufficient capacity caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Combined with data for the first three quarters of 2021, the volume of global trade grew by 11.9%.

By trade category, some sectors showed strong growth in the third quarter, including steel (up 73 per cent year on year), electronic components (26 per cent), pharmaceuticals (22 per cent) and other chemicals (31 per cent). Some sectors stagnated or declined, including automotive products (0%), telecommunications equipment (-5%), apparel (-5%) and textiles (-7%). Weakness in automotive products and telecommunications equipment reflects recent semiconductor shortages, the report said. Many textiles, including medical masks, which had seen a surge in trade during the worst of the pandemic, saw their trade decline in the third quarter due to previous high baselines. On a country-by-country basis, the latest monthly figures showed significant gains in export revenues in countries such as China and South Africa, and modest gains in countries such as the United States and Mexico.

Imports from North America and Europe were weaker than expected in the third quarter, with volumes falling 1.9 per cent and 1 per cent respectively from the previous quarter, according to the report. In addition, container volumes at 94 ports around the world remain near record highs, but have stabilised in recent months. Container throughput rose by about 9% in the year to October, matching the growth in the volume of goods traded in the same period. The WTO expects global trade volumes to grow by 10.8% in the fourth quarter of 2021, up from its previous forecast.